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Forum:2012 Pacific hurricane season
June 93E.INVEST AOI:SSW of Manzillo A large disturbed area of weather that has been targeted by models the past few days is now garnering organization and has a 10% chance of formation by the NHC. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 13:17, June 9, 2012 (UTC) 93E.INVEST Invested. Yqt1001 14:35, June 9, 2012 (UTC) :I've been looking at this for about a day now. Seems like GFS quite likes this system, but it's the only one that really really does. SSTs are still really favorable for development. Honestly, I don't expect that much... at most I see a depression or a weak TS. I expect much much more from the next one behind it. Darren23[[User:Darren23/Cyclone Warning Center|'CWC']] 14:50, June 9, 2012 (UTC) ::You know what, I'm mistaken. I think this has a decent shot at becoming a decent tropical system. I just don't feel confident about it since ECMWF is not really catching on with developing this system. Darren23[[User:Darren23/Cyclone Warning Center|'CWC']] 15:23, June 9, 2012 (UTC) ::ECMWF is not th best model of all I think that with the upgrades the GFS is the best model for now.Allanjeffs 16:08, June 9, 2012 (UTC) ::::Here comes Carlotta...I think we'll see a hurricane (potentially a MH) from this system, but on the bright side, it's well out to sea. It won't be heading toward any land anytime. And future Daniel (behind this system) will probrably parallel/stall off of Mexico if it forms, but that's a long ways out in the future. Ryan1000 17:05, June 9, 2012 (UTC) :::::This is the storm that a bunch of models have been targeting a lot lately... it looks really good now. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 17:11, June 9, 2012 (UTC) :::::I think both Carlotta and Daniel would become major hurricanes remember how does this names have been good in intensifying in the past when they were used.Allanjeffs 17:59, June 9, 2012 (UTC) 30% :D Cyclone10 18:00, June 9, 2012 (UTC) :It's winding up really well. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 18:05, June 9, 2012 (UTC) :::I'm thinking a peak of anywhere from 105 to 125 mph from this storm (Carlotta). Daniel might be the same or stronger. There were only two incarnations of Daniel since 1978-the 1988 and 1994 Daniels, that did not become major hurricanes. Ryan1000 20:32, June 9, 2012 (UTC) :::Could definitely see this reaching major hurricane status its in a favorable enviroment maybe Daniel too but I think it will be trouble for Mexico if it realize.Allanjeffs 20:46, June 9, 2012 (UTC) ::::The environment it is in is becoming conclusive for strengthening. I think it will head west and the curve back into the Baja California. While it will be moving into 30-40 kt wind shear in about 2-3 days, the shear dropped 10 kts in the past 24 hours, and if it continues to do so, it should be around 15-25 kt wind shear when future Carlotta kicks in. Divergence and convergence is stacking up and it has developed a nice 850mb vorticy. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 21:05, June 9, 2012 (UTC) :::::Doubt it will re-curve back, it is June, not October. I'm thinking storng TS. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 21:10, June 9, 2012 (UTC) ::::::Still at '''30'%. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 00:05, June 10, 2012 (UTC) ASCAT reveals that the disturbance is starting to get something resembling a circulation together. Yqt1001 03:06, June 10, 2012 (UTC) The intensity of future Carlotta can be from cat 1 all the way to cat 4.Allanjeffs 04:11, June 10, 2012 (UTC) 50% now we may have a TD as early tomorrow. Allanjeffs 05:49, June 10, 2012 (UTC) :Bumped up to 60% this morning... steadily becoming better organized and will likely become Carlotta. In addition, the floaters are finally up for 93E, if you want to use them. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 13:20, June 10, 2012 (UTC) ::Remains at 60% as the organization does not change much. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 18:00, June 10, 2012 (UTC) ::::JTWC has issued an TCFA.Cyclone10 18:38, June 10, 2012 (UTC) 93E is a very reluctant storm, and thus remains at 60%, but it is in a pretty good environment. Its postioned under an anticyclone and is currently in low shear, but convergence and divergence have stepped down a bit. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 00:42, June 11, 2012 (UTC) Down to 50%Allanjeffs 05:47, June 11, 2012 (UTC) :Its even further down to 30%. The time frame on 93E is running out - it should enter an area of shear very soon. The anticyclone that favored development is now off of the invest. It it forms, it had to be either yesterday or this morning. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 13:10, June 11, 2012 (UTC) :I doubt this invest will become Three-E. It's losing it's chance very fast. AndrewTalk To Me 14:39, June 11, 2012 (UTC) ::Andrew! Where have you been? Anyways the timeframe for 3E is going down. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 15:36, June 11, 2012 (UTC) ::::I guess I spoke to soon...It's not looking very likely at all now that we will see even a depression from this system. First time I've seen a 60% invest bust in a while. Ryan1000 16:16, June 11, 2012 (UTC) ::::::Some models are developing this system later on so it might be dead right now but we need to watch it for the next three days.Allanjeffs 16:32, June 11, 2012 (UTC) :::::::down to 10%Allanjeffs 17:48, June 11, 2012 (UTC) ::::::::Whoa there... it literally hit a brick wall. Right when it reached 20 kt wind shear it just poofed. Supposed to return back to Baja. The pressure gradient has gone down the chute and convergence is off.--'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 18:43, June 11, 2012 (UTC) :::::::::Whammy kablammy! Now at near 0%. Likely not to regenerate. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 23:49, June 11, 2012 (UTC) Completely off NHC now. I really expected more from this. Ryan1000 05:36, June 12, 2012 (UTC) :Great victory for the ECMWF and other models who really expected nearly nothing from this. Puts into question GFS which seems to have been overestimating many storms lately and jumping the gun. Darren23[[User:Darren23/Cyclone Warning Center|'CWC']] 16:34, June 12, 2012 (UTC) ::Big fail by TA. Biggest invest bust since 2010 when there was a 60% that did not develop in October and an 80% that did not develop due to land. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 17:34, June 12, 2012 (UTC) 03E.CARLOTTA 94E.INVEST 20% on NHC. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 14:51, June 12, 2012 (UTC) :MJO is also expected to surge into EPAC Thursday-Saturday and that's when we might get another storm. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 15:06, June 12, 2012 (UTC) ::This is the big one. Models have been fairly in agreement with this system over the past week. The EPAC TWD has also been discussing this system for about 5 days or so. I fully expect development from this. 'Darren23[[User:Darren23/Cyclone Warning Center|'''CWC]] 16:37, June 12, 2012 (UTC) ::If development occurs, it may be a little slow. AndrewTalk To Me 17:22, June 12, 2012 (UTC) :::Nah, I don't see any reason why not? YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 17:31, June 12, 2012 (UTC) ::::Now '''30%' CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 17:58, June 12, 2012 (UTC) ::::::Not only does this storm have a descent chance of developing, but it (unfortunately) seems to be heading for the southern coast of Mexico. It may head out to sea instead, but GFS and ECMWF don't suggest that 3 days from now. Ryan1000 18:14, June 12, 2012 (UTC) ::::::If I were to give a personal forecast of 94E, I would expect it to head out to sea and become Tropical Depression Three-E (and from there, there would be an extremely likely chance of it becoming Tropical Storm Carlotta). AndrewTalk To Me 18:36, June 12, 2012 (UTC) :::::::::Look at the model runs. They take it to MX. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 18:38, June 12, 2012 (UTC) :::::::::::It could cause a potential flood event - the circulation is supposed to wander in and around Mexico. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 19:18, June 12, 2012 (UTC) I wouldn't be so conservative Andrew. 94E is most likely going to become a category 1 or 2 hurricane and make landfall in the Ishtmus of Tehuntapec region in Mexico. Mexico is probrably preparing for this storm right now; hopefully they'll get everyone out of harm's way before Carlotta strikes. And after the landfall, it will likely briefly emerge into the GOM and move inland again near Veracruz (by then, it'll probrably be post-tropical), but rains will be a threat. 'Ryan1000' 21:39, June 12, 2012 (UTC) Now I think 94E is going to cause trouble in Mexico. AndrewTalk To Me 22:19, June 12, 2012 (UTC) ::It's starting to organize better... but my forecast is on the conservative end. 'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 22:47, June 12, 2012 (UTC) :::Now 50% 'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 23:36, June 12, 2012 (UTC) ::::I think this storm will be a potent storm at landfall 110mph is my prediction I think that is the same intensity that Jova had when she made landfall in Mexico last year.Don`t remember correctly to be sincere.Allanjeffs 00:35, June 13, 2012 (UTC) ::::::My forecast follows the track CobraStrike showed above, but I think anywhere from 85-100 mph at it's peak/landfall, or possibly(if it really explodes), 115 mph. 'Ryan1000' 02:17, June 13, 2012 (UTC) :::::::Watch it die tomorrow for some random reason, like 93E. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 04:45, June 13, 2012 (UTC) :::::::::It's now at 60%. I doubt it'll follow the path of its predecessor, 93E. It may be snug in between two areas of 30 kt wind shear, but it already looks better than 93E and is in a secure position that has not seen many wind shear surges. Also the MJO will provide that needed lift in the atmosphere that will provide the convergence and divergence 94E needs, unlike with 93E. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 13:59, June 13, 2012 (UTC) ::::::::::::Still not at TD yet, yet it is now at 30 knts. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 14:49, June 13, 2012 (UTC) Still at 60%. AndrewTalk To Me 17:45, June 13, 2012 (UTC) :They rammed it up to 90%. 'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 23:41, June 13, 2012 (UTC) ::We would probably have td 3E at 11 pm the NHC looks worried that this would strength rapidly into a major storm or Mexico.Btw we are probably seeing our first shot of the 2012 pacific hurricane season of having a name storm to have its name retire.Allanjeffs 00:05, June 14, 2012 (UTC) :::TD 3? You mean TD 3E. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 00:08, June 14, 2012 (UTC) :::Is there any place where I can download a desktop widget to monitor tropical cyclones worldwide? 00:36, June 14, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Depression Three-E Updated on ATCF. 00:50, June 14, 2012 (UTC)]] EP, 03, 2012061400, , BEST, 0, 90N, 922W, 30, 1006, TD. We have td 3E in the pacific and is poise to become Carlotta at any moment, Mexico should really watch this system.Allanjeffs 00:56, June 14, 2012 (UTC) Almost a tropical storm. AndrewTalk To Me 02:37, June 14, 2012 (UTC) :I guess some swimming brings out the TDs! --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 02:40, June 14, 2012 (UTC) ::New advisory, supposed to peak at 65 kts. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 02:51, June 14, 2012 (UTC) ::::A minimal hurricane seems reasonable, though I would go a little more. I don't know about Carlotta being retired, especially considering how often Mexico retires names, but it all depends on how bad flooding may be. @64: You could always view the tropical maps from WeatherUnderground if you want to see tropical cyclones worldwide, or Unisys Weather. 'Ryan1000' 03:27, June 14, 2012 (UTC) :::::I make it peak at 65 kts... and BTW Atomic is back. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 03:29, June 14, 2012 (UTC) :::::I say a peak between 80 to 105 mph I am going to the top I know it doesn`t have a lot of time but RI could occur.Allanjeffs 04:27, June 14, 2012 (UTC) :::::::I say about 60 knots.Cyclone10 04:55, June 14, 2012 (UTC) :::::::::I would put the peak from this storm, as I said earlier, from 85 to 100 mph. 105-110 mph isn't out of the question, but it doesn't have much time (2 days, to be precise) until it will come ashore. Inland flooding will probrably be the main concern with this storm (Carlotta); storm surge is rarely a problem with most hurricanes in Mexico, except for the folks on the low-lying Yucatan Peninsula (mainly Cancun, Cozumel). 'Ryan1000' 05:18, June 14, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Storm Carlotta Confirmed by NHC. Hello, Carlotta! And unfortulately, they take her stalling just inland after landfall. In the area she's heading, this reminds me a bit of Pauline, but it could also pull a Cristina (1996) and not do much other than bring some rainfall. 'Ryan1000' 10:02, June 14, 2012 (UTC) Up to 40 knts. Expected to hit Mexico in 2-3 days. AndrewTalk To Me 11:54, June 14, 2012 (UTC) :Looks like they expect Carlotta to get on its feet quickly - as it is meant to become an 80 mph hurricane. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 13:14, June 14, 2012 (UTC) 95E.INVEST As a reaction to the MJO ready to surge into the EPAC... say hello to 95E.INVEST, currently west of 94E. If you saw two splotches on the models... this is the other one.'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 16:55, June 12, 2012 (UTC) Maybe this will become Daniel in the near future.Allanjeffs 16:58, June 12, 2012 (UTC) :Too close to 94E IMO. Looks like a mess right now. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 17:32, June 12, 2012 (UTC) :20% at first I thought the same as you YE but I think now that both cna develop as the enviroment is favorable for strengthening .Allanjeffs 17:58, June 12, 2012 (UTC) :::It's expected to become a pretty sizeable storm, but unlike 94E, this storm likely won't affect land. All of the storms named Daniel (except the 1988 and 1978 Daniels) have tried to hit Hawaii, but only the 1982 and 2000 Daniels actually did so. Maybe this future-Daniel could threaten them as well. 'Ryan1000' 18:18, June 12, 2012 (UTC) ::::I think i read somewhere that Hawaii ask the retirement of the name Daniel but It was denied.Daniel of 2006 was a threat to hawaii I think so.Allanjeffs 18:23, June 12, 2012 (UTC) :::::@Allan: The 2006 Daniel was claimed to be one of Hawaii's more memorable storms, but the WMO did not accept the request. AndrewTalk To Me 18:40, June 12, 2012 (UTC) :::::Yes, the remnants of Daniel caused floods on Hawaii, and yes WMO did not accept the request of retirement from I think some Hawaii Civil Defense organization. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 19:16, June 12, 2012 (UTC) :::::::A country would have to request a name to be retired for the WMO to have to approve it. Not to say groups of people, like the organizations in Hawaii, can't request retirement either, but they aren't always approved, per Daniel '06. Iwa, Iniki, Paka, and Ioke were requested to be retired from the CPac lists due to their damage, but Ioke would have been removed anyways because it was an incorrect name on the lists, even though the damage on Wake Island would have gotten him removed anyways. Although many storms (particularly the "Daniels") have threatened Hawaii in the past, it's very hard for any hurricane to hit them from the east due to wind shear and the high pressure ridge usually protecting them. Furthermore, Hawaii is small enough to avoid most landfalls from hurricanes. If anything Hawaii is most vulnerable to tsunamis generated by massive earthquakes off Alaska (1946, 1964 to name a few), or even by the Cascaddia Subduction Zone off Oregon and Washington. 'Ryan1000' 21:34, June 12, 2012 (UTC) :::::::Now at 10%. AndrewTalk To Me 17:46, June 13, 2012 (UTC) ::::::::Falling apart --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 22:49, June 13, 2012 (UTC) ::::::::0% looks like Daniel will need to wait.Allanjeffs 06:12, June 14, 2012 (UTC) ::::::::::I think it'll come on Saturday, at the end of the week. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 13:15, June 14, 2012 (UTC) Retirements at a Glance Here's mine: *Aletta - 0% - Not even close. *Bud - 5% - It brought beneficial rain. Cyclone10 16:24, May 26, 2012 (UTC) Mine: *Aletta - 0% - It was a fun pre-season storm to follow, but had no impact on land. *Bud - 2% - Fun storm to follow, but not enough damage. AndrewTalk To Me 11:08, May 20, 2012 (UTC) : Mine ::: Aletta- 0% have fun tracking you. thanks to heat the tropics my darling.Allanjeffs 15:43, May 20, 2012 (UTC) ::: Bud-2% at least pass near Mexico and the first major of the season but Bud, the card that you pull near the coast make your chances of retirement come down and really down.Allanjeffs 15:18, May 26, 2012 (UTC) Well, it's early, but i'll make mine: * Aletta - 0% - Early kickoff to the seson, but no impact, so no retirement. * Bud - 3% - Sorry, Buddy, but that's all I can give you. 'Ryan1000''' 16:23, May 26, 2012 (UTC)